We Actually Survived 2024

What’s The Price?
This Week’s Key FX Prices

The last week of 2024 has arrived! Let’s not enter 2025 the way the CHF is….

This Week In FX
A Year To Remember - 2024

Where do we even begin? 2024 was a year that tested every trader’s resilience and adaptability. Let’s take a trip down memory lane and revisit the chaos, the opportunities, and the lessons. If you made it through, give yourself a pat on the back, you’ve earned it.

1. Central Bank Rollercoaster

• Fed’s Pivot: Mid-year, the Federal Reserve flipped the script, cutting rates to counter slowing economic growth. The result? The USD took a hit, keeping traders on their toes.

• ECB Hawkish Vibes: Inflation stayed stubborn, forcing the ECB to hold the line with higher rates. EUR traders enjoyed some stability for a change.

• BOJ’s Big Moves: The Bank of Japan finally stepped out of its ultra-loose policy era, sending JPY into wild swings. USD/JPY became the pair to watch this year.

2. U.S. Politics: Trump’s Return and the SP500 Rocket

• Trump 2.0: Donald Trump’s return to the White House shook things up. Initial market jitters gave way to optimism as traders priced in potential tax cuts and business-friendly policies.

• SP500 Moonshot: Equities went full throttle, hitting record highs. Tech stocks led the charge, and dovish Fed policies added fuel to the fire. If you didn’t ride this wave, you missed out!

3. Geopolitical Chaos: Oil and Currency Shocks

• Middle East Drama: Renewed tensions, especially involving Iran, spiked oil prices. Petro-currencies like CAD and NOK were big winners.

• Russia-Ukraine Tensions: This ongoing conflict continued to weigh on EUR and GBP, keeping European traders glued to the news.

4. Assassination Attempts Rocked Sentiment

Yes, you read that right, several high-profile assassination attempts (thankfully unsuccessful) made headlines. These events triggered brief “risk-off” moments, with safe havens like USD and JPY seeing sudden spikes.

5. China’s Economic Woes

China’s manufacturing slump and weak consumer demand put pressure on risk currencies like AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the CNY struggled, prompting rumors of intervention by the PBOC.

6. Macro Themes That Shaped 2024

• De-dollarization Buzz: Countries talked more about moving away from USD in trade, which added uncertainty to the FX market.

• AI Takes Over: AI-driven analysis became the must-have tool for traders this year. If you’re not using it yet, you’re already behind.

• El Niño Effects: Extreme weather played a big role in agriculture, shaking up commodity-linked currencies like BRL and ZAR.

What’s the Takeaway?

2024 was a masterclass in staying nimble. From Trump to the Fed to global conflicts, the market kept us on edge. Success this year came down to adapting to the noise, capitalizing on volatility, and understanding the bigger macro picture.

Here’s to 2025. May it be just as profitable (and hopefully a little less chaotic)!

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Seasonal Pattern Spotlight
Pattern Of The Week: GOLD

Here’s a gem (literally). Gold has a sneaky seasonal pattern that has been consistent over the past 20 years, delivering some impressive gains during a specific time frame, December 30 to January 25. Let’s break it down.

This time of year, Gold has historically offered an annualized return of +41.07%, with a 70% win rate. That’s right, if you’d traded this pattern every year for the past two decades, you’d have won more often than not. On average, Gold delivers a return of +2.46% during this 18-trading-day window, with total profits of +590 points.

Why does this happen? Likely a mix of year-end portfolio rebalancing, renewed investor interest in safe-haven assets, and increased physical gold demand during holidays and New Year celebrations.

📉 What This Means for You: If you are trading XAUUSD, keep an eye on this overall trend, it may give you more of an edge in your analysis.

Macro Made Simple
Master the Art of Simplifying Complexity

If you're new to macro trading, here's a golden rule: focus on one key relationship at a time. Macro can feel like a tangled web of data, but your edge lies in finding simple cause-and-effect patterns. For example:

• When central banks cut interest rates, currency values often drop due to reduced yield appeal.

• Rising oil prices? Check the ripple effect on inflation data and oil-sensitive currencies like CAD.

Don’t get overwhelmed trying to analyze everything. Pick a theme (like inflation, interest rates, or commodity prices), find how it influences specific markets, and test how that relationship plays out in the past.

Remember, macro is a puzzle, start with the corners (the basics), and the picture will come together over time.

Market History Flashback
1999: NASDAQ’s Record High

On December 30, 1999, the NASDAQ Composite closed at 3,700, near its all-time highs during the height of the dot-com bubble. Tech stocks like Microsoft and Cisco drove the index’s meteoric rise, fueled by investor euphoria over internet-based companies.

While the rally seemed unstoppable, this peak was a warning sign. Just months later, the bubble burst, leading to an 80% crash in the NASDAQ over the next two years, wiping out trillions in market value.

Lesson for Traders: Market hype can be lucrative but dangerous. Stay grounded in fundamentals and remember that every boom can lead to a bust.

Trading Psychology Nugget
Avoid Trading Blow-Ups!

Struggling to keep your emotions in check while trading? You’re not alone. In this episode of Mind Over Markets, Louise Bedford (6x best-selling author and a leading expert in trading psychology) walks you through how to tackle one of the biggest challenges traders face: staying disciplined under pressure.

Louise shares actionable strategies to help you avoid emotional traps, bounce back quickly from losses, and build the mental resilience every trader needs. Whether it’s managing emotional triggers or maintaining consistency, this episode is packed with practical tips to keep your trading on track.

💡 Key takeaways:

• The hidden psychology behind trading mistakes.

• Proven techniques to manage emotional reactions.

• How to stay focused and disciplined in any market condition.

Don’t let emotions derail your trades.

Key Events
Mark Your Calendars! 📅

Here are the main headlines for day traders to be weary of when trading this week.

View the full economic calendar on Trading Economics.

Weekly Deals
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